Beaver Expansion Forecast Viewer

Load the forecast_leaflet.json output from the R simulation script. This contains yearly dam states (observed + simulated) with birth years, failure years, and coordinates.

Beaver Expansion Forecast

Pattern-oriented simulation · RF mask (> 0.5) · calibrated via ABC

Year Summary

ACTIVE

FAILED

NEW

SIMULATED

TOTAL

RF mask: suitability > 0.50

Source: R pattern-oriented simulation

How it works:

Each active dam independently attempts to establish one offspring per year (Pspread). Settlement weighted by RF suitability and distance decay. Rare long-distance events via Pleap. Dam lifespans drawn from observed failure hazard.

Parameters calibrated via LHS + ABC against observed 2010–2025 pattern.